What is allowed and what is prohibited in the Tyumen region from May 18

Traffic

Fitness reset: what awaits the fitness industry in the next 5 years?

Every time before the New Year, everyone’s favorite attraction happens: invited specialists and experts from various areas of business, with a wide range of knowledge, give their forecasts: analyze the past, talk about expectations, present their development scenarios. In a word, they lift the veil of the future. Let's talk about the trends that are expected in the development of the domestic fitness industry and how they will affect market participants and clients of fitness clubs.

For what?

Many of us really want to look into the future. Most often this is ordinary human curiosity, but sometimes it is the desire to make the right decision and the desire to avoid mistakes. That is why prophets and predictors have always had a job. By mixing artistic imagination and scientific facts, representatives of various esoteric teachings, astrologers, palmists, and, of course, science fiction writers give us the opportunity to vividly imagine the image of a foggy future. However, we ourselves are often the real predictors. After all, the most famous and most common method of forecasting is superstition. It is enough to see a black cat crossing your path, and it becomes obvious that today your bosses will remember the report that you promised to submit two weeks ago!

But the future is most often just a consequence of certain circumstances occurring in the present. And from this point of view, forecasting is an interesting task in studying the future, for the solution of which it is useful and convenient to use various scientific methods.

There are five main methods of scientific forecasting:

1) extrapolation; 2) historical analogy; 3) computer modeling; 4) future scenarios; 5) expert assessments.

Each of these methods has its own advantages and disadvantages. Thus, the accuracy of extrapolation (extension of trends from past periods to the future) decreases sharply as the time step increases, since the future is not a simple quantitative continuation of the present. Historical analogy, when used to assess options for the development of events, is also very limited: the use of historical facts to plan the future does not reflect new trends and trends. Computer modeling is a very interesting and visual method, but it requires algorithms, which are a task for rare leisure to compile on the topic of fitness - after all, the size of the business is small, and therefore the financial result is not obvious. Future Scenarios provide a way to imagine the future through real, contrasting stories told by experts about how businesses as a whole and specific areas of the business might evolve in the coming decades. Finally, the expert assessment method makes it possible to predict the future based on the consensus of experts reached by discussing the development of various scenarios.

In order to leave room for the creative flight of thought of other colleagues I respect, I will risk using the extrapolation method to forecast the state of the fitness industry in the coming years. So! Where does scientific research begin? Right! Baseline data and boundaries should be established. Therefore, I will outline the main problems that the fitness industry will have to solve in the coming years.

Challenges of the fitness industry: about the problems

As economists and politicians say, we live in a post-industrial era. Is it good or bad? Let's figure it out! Modern mass production satisfies all basic human needs and ensures the safety of his physical existence, and the existing sales system gives hope for the rapid achievement of universal prosperity. The post-industrial era is an era of achieving prosperity. But! Today society needs to improve not so much the quantitative as the qualitative characteristics of life. According to the UN report “The Aging of the World Population”, in the years 1950–2050, demographic changes that began in the 9th-20th centuries and continue in the 21st will have very profound consequences for the entire population of our planet. How will these changes impact the fitness industry and those who work in it?

I will dwell on each problem and try to extrapolate them into the future.

1. Increasing number of elderly people.

Figure 1. Share of the population of three large age groups in the Russian population, %

The current level of population aging has no analogues in human history. The increase in the proportion of older people (60 years and older) is accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of young people (under 15 years of age). It is expected that by 2050, for the first time in human history, the number of older people in the world will exceed the number of young people! Consequently, the percentage of elderly people will be large throughout society, including among clients of fitness clubs.

2. Fall in potential support ratio (PSR) .

Figure 2. PDA change

The PEP is the ratio of the number of people aged 15 to 64 years to one older person aged 65 years or older. In other words, PCP characterizes the burden of dependency placed on potential workers. Between 1950 and 2000, the PPP fell from 12 to 9 people for every working-age person 65 years and older. By mid-century, PKP is projected to drop to 4 people.

This means there is reason to assume that the state will, with its maximum participation, support programs aimed at preserving the health of the population. Both for young workers who need to be able to earn money both for themselves and for the maintenance of older people. The same goes for pensioners themselves, whose health directly affects the level of government spending allocated to free healthcare programs.

Based on a logical comparison of facts, I dare to hope that the state will provide social and financial support to fitness enthusiasts. As the Canadian government is already doing, returning part of the tax paid to those citizens who visit fitness clubs and other sports and recreational institutions.

3. Increasing the statutory retirement age.

Figure 3. Structure of the working-age population of Russia, both sexes, percentages

The unfavorable demographic situation in the country dictates strict conditions for the retirement of Russians at an older age. Today, after reaching retirement age, many Russians continue to work! The share of working pensioners in Russia is very high: it is 35% versus 10–15% in Europe. The Ministry of Finance proposes to further increase the retirement age starting from 2020. This trend involves the involvement in fitness not only of those who are 25–40 years old, but also of those over 60. It is no secret that the Russian fitness industry is still one of the most commercially attractive areas of business. Therefore, I have expectations that shareholders of fitness clubs will use the additional opportunity to make money from a new category of clients.

4. Increasing the number of older instructors

Fitness in Russia has existed for almost 20 years and many of the trainers who stood at its origins are already over 40. The age of caring for one’s own health. Those who were able and willing made a career as managers. Those who remain on the front lines are more inclined to use energy resources wisely and prefer holistic cardio and strength training programs to intense cardio and strength training programs.

This means that experienced and wise group training professionals will be looking for opportunities to stay in the industry by applying their knowledge and skills. More precisely, they will offer personal training instead of group training, and Body&Mind classes instead of lessons on step platforms. For those who have been able to stay in the gym, the time will come to professionally treat occupational diseases, as well as teach non-traditional types of training for the gym - Pilates, myofascial release, stretching, rehabilitation training (taking into account the specifics of the client’s problems).

5. Save time

In a competitive environment, time is of the greatest value. Therefore, an employee who can work without limits becomes one of the most important employees in the eyes of managers. The harried staff of large corporations, where the mania for efficiency and unlimited working hours reigns, is ready to do anything to be as functional as possible. Finding himself in such conditions, a person values ​​every hour of his personal free time “as worth its weight in gold.”

Does the behavior of fitness club clients who are under constant time pressure change? Undoubtedly!

1. Effective quick programs for 15–30 minutes to achieve results: weight loss or stress relief will be in increasing demand. Already, many fitness clubs in large Western cities offer classes called Fast Class - half-hour strength or cardio classes held in the gym.

2. In addition, the use of the club as a place for joint leisure with family members will increase. This means that the number of offers for children will increase: from an increase in the range of children’s fitness programs to the mandatory planning of not just a “luggage compartment”, but a full-fledged fitness area in each club in the residential area.

6. Deterioration of the musculoskeletal system (MSD) in current and potential clients

Despite the fact that the human body is not well adapted to sitting for long periods of time, this particular position has become the main one in which the vast majority of potential fitness fans spend 8 to 10 hours daily. This negatively affects the condition of not only the spine, but also the functioning of all body systems. Not only office furniture manufacturers know this, but also radiologists, chiropractors, coloproctologists, phlebologists, gastroenterologists, neurologists, surgeons, massage therapists and many other specialists. Managers of fitness clubs, naturally, will continue to take into account the needs of a powerful layer of “professional sedentary”, demanding from their subordinates an increase in services that meet the needs of the main clientele:

Which means:

1. The number of programs that have a potential danger for ODA will be reduced. These are still popular in Russia, but have almost disappeared from the schedule of Western clubs: cardio classes on a step platform, high-impact aerobics, belly dancing, jazz, reggae, Latin American classes, hip-hop, sports-oriented lessons in functional training. Accordingly, the number of holistic classes (yoga of various directions, stretch, Pilates, tai chi), as well as rehabilitation (restorative) lessons based on functional training, will increase.

The latest programs are little known to Russian fitness instructors, who draw the main information about new fitness products from conventional lessons. But Western professionals have long appreciated the possibilities of functional training with targeted work with deep muscle layers.

Knowing functional anatomy, psychosomatics, various techniques for relaxing all muscle groups, and being able to diagnose (using visual examination, palpation methods and motor tests), they work with muscle imbalances and change movement patterns. Thus, reducing or eliminating the problem that caused this imbalance.

Increasing your customer base.

2. In the clubs, it will be mandatory for all clients to undergo spinal fitness testing, which will reduce the risk of getting a client with a potentially dangerous condition of the musculoskeletal system, as well as to create and sell truly effective personal fitness programs to the client, taking into account the identified disorders of the spine. Agree, the client is not obliged to know about the presence of osteochondrosis or protrusion, but for the fitness trainer and the club this is an important issue: not only can the client get injured, but he will also demand the money back and tell his friends where they “helped” him so much. !

7. The danger of a second wave of crisis due to the lack of qualified personnel in the industry

Expectations of a possible deterioration in the economic situation in Russia cannot but affect the fitness business. Although fitness services are not among the services on which savings are made in the first place, many are faced with a change in customer priorities. Now people weigh the pros and cons before making an expensive choice. And the client would rather prefer a club with professional instructors than with a high level of repair. Unfortunately, the fitness market was developing so quickly that specialized educational institutions did not have time to train high-quality personnel. In addition, the absence of the need to license fitness services for a long time allowed clubs to hire staff without physical education or medical education, as long as the instructor knew how to move and had “charisma.” That is why in fitness clubs there are so many coaching staff from former military personnel, athletes, dancers, and so few specialists in solving client problems using physical activity methods. No one can predict whether there will be a second wave of the crisis. But those clubs that have not proactively trained staff in modern fitness programs may find themselves in dire financial straits.

Saving on the purchase of exercise equipment and allocating funds to workforce development will help maintain the required sales volume even during a crisis.

1. This means that you won’t have to wait for a major update of the gym park in the near future. Managers of fitness clubs are more likely to invest in the development of additional services, expecting that an increase in sales of personal training will bring more profit than an increase in the cost of a club card due to an improvement in the material and technical base.

Guaranteed quality of services (and therefore achievement of results) - the only condition when a client is willing to pay for personal training - will require instructors to reconsider their knowledge base.

2. If now the most interesting option for the club is a multifunctional group instructor who, if necessary, is ready to take on the entire schedule of group programs, then in the future interest in specialists with knowledge of rehabilitation will increase.

Rehabilitation or restoration is the only product whose effectiveness is guaranteed only if there is a personal approach. This is the product for which the client is ready to pay his last money. Getting rid of pain and returning to normal life is perceived as an adequate price for the time and money spent.

3. Therefore, I predict a boom in demand for training programs in rehabilitation areas of fitness with an in-depth study of functional anatomy, diagnostics, and all possible options for conducting personal training with clients with health problems. A modern fitness professional should also be multifunctional, but not in terms of the set of movement patterns he has from various fitness areas (a little from yoga, a little from dancing, a little from sports), but in terms of versatile knowledge. He must know how to help a specific person improve the quality of his life: from a thorough knowledge of the features of the anatomical and functional structure of the body to the mathematically correct determination of the correct starting position, the correct equipment, the intensity and degree of impact of physical exercise.

Imagine that the instructor, like a sculptor, sculpts a perfect shape from a shapeless piece of material. Instead of an ax and a hammer, it is better for him to take a thin file, a chisel and a chisel. And even better - a laser device for targeted treatment! Otherwise, as in the video about Peugeot - despite the external similarity, the Peugeot, made by an Indian craftsman from a Trabant using a wall, an ax and an elephant, still remains a Trabant, although it evokes a proud smile from the owner. You can convince the client that he is now almost an athlete. But the x-ray will show him otherwise.

3. Clients focused on group programs will prefer classes in small groups, because this is where they will be able to solve their problems more effectively. At a relatively low cost of services, this will allow you to train with increased safety.

4. The number of people willing to train at home with their personal trainer will increase. Accordingly, the number of trainers who will learn to conduct classes without the strength equipment of the gym or with small equipment will increase. Therefore, functional and traditional strength training with small equipment, Pilates and yoga are among the main trends that are expected to develop rapidly.

I have presented possible challenges that the fitness industry will face in the near future and its possible reactions to various situations. Let me summarize.

Forecast for the development of the fitness industry for the next 5 years

1. In the coming years, fitness club programs will be aimed at an older generation than now. In the group schedule, the proportion of programs for the elderly and children will increase, and the number of aqua classes will also increase.

2. Equipment for fitness clubs will be selected taking into account the increase in the percentage of older and younger students: exercise machines with larger handles, pools with shallower depths, and ramps will appear.

3. The state will be interested in providing assistance to organizations involved in disease prevention. Tax cuts or rental rates are expected.

4. The structure of fitness education will change: instead of teaching the basics of classical aerobics, instructors will begin to master the basics of kinesiology, rehabilitation medicine and psychology. The most advanced will study Thai massage and the basics of manual therapy and herbal medicine. More and more doctors will provide personal training.

5. The structure of group fitness programs will change towards more holistic and rehabilitation classes.

6. Coaching will become more popular - personal training plus lifestyle consultations for clients who will prefer not to pay for unnecessary group programs and a gym included in their membership, but will begin to exercise in the office or at home.

7. The most popular group programs will be:

• Body&Mind programs (yoga, stretch, tai chi, Body balance, Pilates);
• cycling and interval training (instead of traditional step and Hi-Lo);
• recovery programs based on functional training using various equipment (dumbbells, body weight, medicine ball, shock absorbers, TRX, etc.);
• small group classes;
• various types of traditional strength training (BodyPump, circular);
• children's programs;
• aqua classes.

8. Clients who are adepts in dance styles, and with them a variety of dance lessons, will move to specialized dance clubs, where special attention will be paid to establishing safe movement techniques. Dividing clients according to their style preferences, as well as level of training, will allow you to dance beautifully and safely.

9. Traditional aerobic classes (Low, Hi-Low and mixed) will continue to lose their popularity, although they will be offered in regional clubs.

10. Reducing the number of classes based on boxing (taibo, kickboxing). Instead, lessons of varying intensity based on functional training will be offered.

11. The clubs will have comprehensive health programs recommended by a doctor based on diagnosis, anamnesis and taking into account the client’s goals. The program will also include services provided by various specialists: a fitness instructor, a spa specialist, a massage therapist, and the doctor himself. It can be called a wellness program, a health program, a rehabilitation program - whatever you want, even a rehabilitation program if the club has a medical license! Its main essence is a systematic comprehensive service using the most comfortable and effective (and therefore commercial) healing methods. The second important feature is that it is prescribed and monitored by a doctor.

This is my forecast. It is your right to accept it or challenge it. But I am firmly convinced of one thing: we can change the future of the Russian fitness industry for the better.

The future of fitness is a future that we create not only to solve our own financial problems and self-realization. The beautiful far away is a world in which we, our parents and children should feel confident and comfortable. Anyone who lives not only for today has the opportunity to influence the future.

What do you personally want from the future? So that the fitness club you head successfully makes money, prepared for tomorrow's problems with your today's decisions? So that when your children and parents come to your club, they communicate with qualified fitness staff who have all the necessary knowledge to professionally improve the quality of life of their loved ones?

The present challenges us, and we are not free to change the proposed circumstances. But we are free to choose what tomorrow’s fitness day will be like.

Web server

Data are approximate* Last updated: 04/04/2017 09:24:54